everything and nothing. not really sure yet.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

South Carolina

It's been a while since my last post on the Presidential elections, and, I haven't really gotten anything right since the Democrats in Iowa. However, here are my South Carolina predictions:
1) Obama 39%
2) Clinton 30%
3) Edwards 30%
then 1% to 'others'. Clinton will get more votes than Edwards - just - but statistically and in delegate terms they will tie.
If I am wrong and Clinton wins (maybe 35% to 34%), what will it mean for Obama? Conventional wisdom says that it will hurt him, maybe to the point of knocking him out altogether, but I'm not so sure. Clinton cannot win SC on the white vote alone, she will need a very sizeable portion of the Black vote. With race suddenly being an issue, Obama has recently been erroneously perceived in some circles as the 'black candidate' a la Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton, when in reality the base of his support across the country has always been educated whites. If Clinton wins, or comes close to winning, the black vote in SC, then it might help shake the perception of Obama as the 'black candidate' and allow him to once again be the candidate who happens to be black, but is not running to represent the African-American people alone.


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